Southern California Housing Market Forecast: Will it Crash? – Norada Real Estate Investments

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The current state of the Southern California housing market in 2024 showcases a dynamic and resilient environment. The rebound in existing home sales, coupled with fluctuating median home prices, indicates a market influenced by both internal and external factors. The year-to-date statewide home sales growth further emphasizes the enduring appeal of California’s real estate landscape.

How is the Southern California housing market doing currently?

California’s existing home sales experienced a significant rebound in January, marking the highest level in six months. This surge can be attributed to a notable pullback in mortgage rates towards the end of 2023.

According to data from the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®, existing single-family home sales reached 256,160 in January on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. This reflects a substantial increase of 14.4 percent from December, when sales were at 224,000, and a noteworthy 5.9 percent rise from January 2023, where sales stood at 241,920.

Examining the median home prices in California for January 2024 reveals interesting insights. The statewide median home price was $788,940, representing a modest decline of 3.8 percent from December. However, when compared to January 2023, there was a significant uptick of 5.0 percent from $751,700. This data suggests a dynamic and fluctuating market influenced by various factors.

Insights into Southern California’s Housing Market

January 2024 Statistics for Southern California

  • Median Sold Price: $790,000
  • Sales Comparison: No change, remaining at $790,000 from December 2023
  • Comparison with January 2023: A notable increase from $738,250
  • Price Month-to-Month Change: 0.0%
  • Price Year-to-Year Change: 7.0%
  • Sales Month-to-Month Change: A decline of 12.2%
  • Sales Year-to-Year Change: A positive change of 2.2%

The specific data for Southern California in January 2024 provides a nuanced understanding of the regional market. Despite maintaining a consistent median sold price of $790,000 from December 2023, there is a notable year-to-year increase from January 2023, indicating the market’s resilience and growth over time.

Regional Trends in Southern California’s Housing Market

Los Angeles County

  • Median Sold Price: $833,000
  • Sales Comparison: Decreased from $853,340 in December 2023
  • Comparison with January 2023: A significant increase from $778,540
  • Price Month-to-Month Change: -2.4%
  • Price Year-to-Year Change: 7.0%
  • Sales Month-to-Month Change: A decline of 17.1%
  • Sales Year-to-Year Change: A modest increase of 0.8%

Los Angeles County experienced a slight dip in median sold price in January 2024, reaching $833,000. This follows a decrease in sales compared to December 2023. However, the year-to-year comparison showcases a robust market, with a notable increase in both median sold price and sales.

Orange County

  • Median Sold Price: $1,320,000
  • Sales Comparison: Increased from $1,300,000 in December 2023
  • Comparison with January 2023: A substantial rise from $1,194,500
  • Price Month-to-Month Change: 1.5%
  • Price Year-to-Year Change: 10.5%
  • Sales Month-to-Month Change: A decrease of 14.8%
  • Sales Year-to-Year Change: A decline of -1.0%

Orange County stands out with a significant median sold price of $1,320,000 in January 2024. The month-to-month increase in both price and sales reflects a strong market, although there is a slight decline in sales compared to the previous year.

Riverside County

  • Median Sold Price: $610,000
  • Sales Comparison: A marginal increase from $607,500 in December 2023
  • Comparison with January 2023: A rise from $585,000
  • Price Month-to-Month Change: 0.4%
  • Price Year-to-Year Change: 4.3%
  • Sales Month-to-Month Change: A decrease of 9.7%
  • Sales Year-to-Year Change: A minimal decline of -0.1%

In Riverside County, the median sold price reached $610,000 in January 2024, with marginal changes in both sales and prices. The year-to-year data suggests a resilient market despite a slight decrease in sales compared to the previous month.

San Bernardino County

  • Median Sold Price: $477,500
  • Sales Comparison: Decreased from $506,000 in December 2023
  • Comparison with January 2023: A rise from $446,900
  • Price Month-to-Month Change: -5.6%
  • Price Year-to-Year Change: 6.8%
  • Sales Month-to-Month Change: A significant decline of 15.9%
  • Sales Year-to-Year Change: A remarkable increase of 15.6%

San Bernardino County witnessed a decrease in median sold price in January 2024, coupled with a notable decline in sales compared to December 2023. However, the year-to-year data shows a resilient market with a substantial increase in both median sold price and sales.

San Diego County

  • Median Sold Price: $925,000
  • Sales Comparison: Increased from $911,500 in December 2023
  • Comparison with January 2023: A significant rise from $824,900
  • Price Month-to-Month Change: 1.5%
  • Price Year-to-Year Change: 12.1%
  • Sales Month-to-Month Change: A slight decrease of -0.9%
  • Sales Year-to-Year Change: No change, remaining at 0.0%

San Diego County stands out with a median sold price of $925,000 in January 2024. The month-to-month increase in both price and sales reflects a robust market, although there is a slight decrease in sales compared to the previous month.

Ventura County

  • Median Sold Price: $870,000
  • Sales Comparison: Decreased from $882,500 in December 2023
  • Comparison with January 2023: A rise from $815,000
  • Price Month-to-Month Change: -1.4%
  • Price Year-to-Year Change: 6.7%
  • Sales Month-to-Month Change: A decline of 10.0%
  • Sales Year-to-Year Change: A remarkable increase of 15.8%

Ventura County experienced a decrease in median sold price in January 2024, along with a decline in sales compared to December 2023. However, the year-to-year data showcases a resilient market with an increase in both median sold price and sales.

Are Home Prices Dropping in Southern California?

As of January 2024, the overall home price trend in Southern California is mixed. The median sold price remains stable at $790,000, reflecting no month-to-month change, but with a positive 7.0% year-to-year increase. However, there is a notable decline of 12.2% in month-to-month sales. Despite this, the market demonstrates resilience with a positive year-to-year sales change of 2.2%, showcasing the dynamic nature of the real estate landscape in the region.

Southern California Housing Market Forecast: Will it Crash?

The forecast for the Southern California Housing Market for the year 2024 suggests a dynamic real estate landscape shaped by various factors. Rising interest rates will continue to influence the market, impacting both buyers and sellers. However, opportunities for growth and stability exist, with county-level variations providing unique market dynamics.

  • Interest Rates and Market Behavior: The prevailing trend of rising interest rates will remain a central driver of the housing market. Buyers are expected to be more selective, while sellers may need to adapt to changing conditions. The cost of borrowing will play a pivotal role in shaping sales volume and affordability.
  • County-Level Variations: Southern California’s housing market is a diverse landscape, with county-specific dynamics. Price growth is anticipated, but the pace and magnitude will differ across regions. Buyers and sellers need to be aware of these variations and adjust their strategies accordingly.
  • Adaptation and Resilience: As we look ahead to 2024-2025, the key to success in the Southern California housing market lies in adaptation. Buyers, sellers, and real estate professionals should consider creative financing options and effective marketing strategies. Resilience and flexibility will be essential in navigating the evolving market.
  • Economic Factors: Economic indicators, such as interest rates and employment rates, play a crucial role in shaping the housing market. The recent increase in interest rates might have initially impacted sales but could stabilize in the coming months. As economic conditions improve, and with the potential moderation of interest rates, buying sentiments may improve, giving the market a boost towards the end of the year.

Considering these trends and factors, the Southern California housing market is expected to maintain a relatively stable trajectory for the rest of 2024. Moderate price increases, steady sales, potential improvement in inventory, and favorable economic conditions are likely to define the market in the upcoming months.

However, it’s essential to remember that real estate markets can be influenced by various unpredictable factors. Hence, regular monitoring of market updates and consulting with real estate professionals for the latest insights is highly recommended for those looking to make informed decisions in the housing market.

ALSO READ:

Bay Area Housing Market Prices & Forecast

Los Angeles Real Estate Marke Prices And Forecast

San Diego Real Estate Market Forecast

Sacramento Real Estate Market Prices & Forecast


Sources:

  • https://www.car.org/
  • https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/housing-market-predictions/

This post was originally published on 3rd party site mentioned in the title of this site

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