Will the San Francisco Housing Market Crash in 2024? – Norada Real Estate Investments

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The San Francisco housing market is among the most competitive and expensive in the United States. As a densely populated and highly sought-after urban area, the county’s real estate market is characterized by high demand and limited inventory, resulting in intense competition among buyers and soaring prices.

How is the San Francisco housing market doing currently?

In November 2023, the California housing market experienced a notable downturn, with elevated borrowing costs contributing to a substantial decrease in home sales. According to the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.), the statewide median home price was $822,200, reflecting a 2.2% decline from October but still exhibiting a 6.2% increase from November 2022.

At the regional level, all major areas witnessed a decline in home sales in November compared to the same period the previous year. This overall slowdown in the real estate market raises questions about the specific dynamics of the San Francisco housing market.

San Francisco County Data Overview

  • Median Sold Price: $1,535,000
  • October 2023 Price: $1,650,000
  • November 2022 Price: $1,500,000
  • Price Month-to-Month Change: -7.0%
  • Price Year-over-Year Change: 2.3%
  • Sales Month-to-Month Change: -3.0%
  • Sales Year-over-Year Change: 6.1%

Is San Francisco a Buyer’s or Seller’s Housing Market?

Considering the decline in home sales and the decrease in median prices in San Francisco County, the current market conditions lean towards being more favorable for buyers. The reduced demand may empower buyers with more negotiation leverage.

While the median home price in San Francisco County experienced a month-to-month decrease of 7.0%, the year-over-year change remains positive at 2.3%. This suggests that while prices have dipped in the short term, the long-term trend still indicates growth.

Will the San Francisco Housing Market Crash?

The data presents mixed signals. While the decline in prices and sales raises concerns, the year-over-year price increase and positive sales growth may indicate a temporary market correction rather than an imminent crash. Continued monitoring is essential to assess the stability of the market.

Given the current buyer-friendly conditions with lower prices and positive year-over-year sales growth, it could be considered a good time for prospective buyers to enter the San Francisco housing market. However, careful consideration of individual financial situations and market trends is crucial.

Evaluating Rental Trends in San Francisco, CA

Recent data by Zunper indicates a notable shift in rent prices for all bedroom counts and property types in San Francisco, CA. Over the last month, there has been a 2% decrease, mirroring a similar decline over the past year. These changes raise questions about the factors influencing the rental market in this vibrant city.

As of December 2023, the median rent for all bedroom counts and property types in San Francisco stands at $3,239. This figure, while reflecting a 2% decrease in the last month and year, remains significantly higher than the national average, with a staggering +67% difference.

The decline in rent prices in San Francisco, CA, suggests a potential shift in the rental market dynamics. While this may be favorable for tenants, it also raises questions about the overall economic health of the city and the factors driving these changes. The significant difference in median rent compared to the national average emphasizes the unique challenges and opportunities in the San Francisco rental market.

Looking Ahead: A Glimpse into 2024

The California Association of Realtors foresees a rebound in the state’s real estate market in 2024. With projections of cooling inflation and a slower economy, mortgage rates are expected to decline, providing a boost to buyers’ purchasing power. Zillow reports that San Francisco metro area buyers require an income of $275,000 to afford a home at a 7% interest rate with a 20% down payment.

Insights for 2024:

  • The California median home price is anticipated to rise by 6.2% to $860,300 in 2024 after slight declines in 2022 and 2023.
  • Inflation cooling and a slowing economy are expected to result in decreased mortgage rates, potentially aiding buyers in their home purchases.

Deciphering the San Francisco Real Estate Landscape for Buyers

Are Home Prices on the Decline?

In recent months, the San Francisco real estate market has witnessed a decline in median home sale prices. The third quarter of the year saw a notable drop, with home prices decreasing by 6.5% since 2022. Similarly, condo sales prices experienced a 4% decline during the same period. This downward trend in prices suggests a potential shift in the market dynamics.

Key Points to Consider:

  • Median home sale prices in San Francisco dropped by 6.5% since 2022, indicating a notable shift in the market.
  • Condo sales prices saw a 4% decline during the same period, reinforcing the trend of falling prices.
  • These price drops might present opportunities for potential buyers looking to enter the San Francisco housing market.

Is it an Opportune Time to Buy Property?

With declining home prices and a more balanced market, some may see the current situation as a favorable time to buy property in San Francisco. The decline in prices, coupled with a market that is not skewed in favor of buyers or sellers, presents a potential window of opportunity. Buyers may find a more accommodating environment, and with mortgage rates anticipated to decrease, their purchasing power could increase.

Key Considerations:

  • The decline in home prices could make it an attractive time for prospective buyers to enter the San Francisco real estate market.
  • A more balanced market means buyers can make informed decisions without the pressure of a highly competitive environment.
  • Anticipated reductions in mortgage rates could further enhance the appeal of buying property at this time.

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