This is the Bay Area’s ‘last affordable area.’ Here’s what home prices look like – San Francisco Chronicle

Florence Arkin knew she couldn’t afford a house on the Peninsula where she’d grown up. And the market in much of the rest of the Bay Area in 2022 was too expensive for the single mother of two.

That’s when she started looking further out in the East Bay, eventually finding a 2,200 square-foot house in Bay Point, part of unincorporated Contra Costa County about an hour journey from San Francisco by BART. It hadn’t even hit the market yet, but Arkin knew she had to move fast.

“I just felt like if I didn’t get in at the point that I got in, it would be impossible (later),” she said.

For some first-time buyers like Arkin, moving to Bay Point and other relatively affordable places like nearby Pittsburg or Antioch is their only shot at becoming a homeowner in the Bay Area — even if it means accepting a longer commute. Those areas’ rising home values, which have outpaced the jump in the region overall, reflects recent interest from buyers. Still, homes in Bay Point often sell for less than half of the usual price of Bay Area suburbs like Fremont and Walnut Creek that are closer to San Francisco.

But some local leaders are worried that the growth in home values might eventually lead to current residents being pushed out of a community they say had been overlooked for decades — and which is now getting attention from buyers.

Bay Point’s typical home value had been steadily growing for years before 2020. But like in the Bay Area overall, prices surged during the pandemic, with Bay Point’s typical home value passing the half-million-dollar mark in 2021.

Bay Point’s values rose from an estimated $428,000 in March 2020 to $541,000 in March 2024, a nearly 27% increase, according to data from Zillow. Over the same four years, home values in the overall San Francisco metropolitan area rose by just 19%. Other Contra Contra cities with relatively inexpensive homes also saw prices increase unusually quickly.

Most of the surge came in 2021 and 2022, when a flood of home buyers — many of them no longer required to be in the office every day — were competing for bigger or cheaper living space in the East Bay and South Bay.

“Being the last affordable area for first-time buyers, … it gave them an opportunity for homeownership,” said Kimberly Barnett, a Realtor at Coldwell Banker Realty.

Despite the rise in prices in the past four years, homes in places like Bay Point remain fairly affordable compared to the rest of the San Francisco metro area, where the typical home has a value of about $1.2 million.

While Barnett says lower prices are the main thing attracting buyers to the area, she also pointed to Bay Point’s nearness to shopping centers in Concord and Pittsburg. The BART station is also a major draw, she added.

Carl Medford, who leads a Fremont-based real estate agency with Keller Williams Advisors, said that higher mortgage rates are pushing buyers to look for cheaper homes in Bay Point, where listings can be as low as $300,000. But he noted commutes may reach three hours a day for those working in Oakland or San Francisco.

Still, Medford added, “there’s always people that are going to be willing to do that.”

Now a community of more than 24,000 people, according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, Bay Point’s proximity to the shoreline made it an industrial hub in the 1900s. It used to be called West Pittsburg, but residents voted in 1993 to rename the area to distinguish it from its neighbor. Residents have easy views of the lush hills to the east and the marshland to the north, a habitat for Western pond turtles, shorebirds and otters. The local park district hosts a community garden, family social services and youth programs. More than two-thirds of residents are Hispanic.

But Bay Point also suffers from air and water pollution issues, according to a county planning document. The community median household income is just $79,000, much lower than the county household income of $120,000.

Unlike neighboring cities, Bay Point is home to few stores, though it hosts a large Walgreens and some small supermarkets. That’s contributed to a lack of jobs, with few residents able to get work at local manufacturing companies because of “mismatched skill sets and language barriers,” according to the county planning document. As a result, many residents have to make long commutes to jobs in central Contra Costa County. A Contra Costa County planner told the New York Times in 2011 that without more employers, Bay Point could ultimately become a destination for people who couldn’t afford a house elsewhere in the Bay Area. 

Bay Point needs more investment from the county and state, said Eduardo Torres, a lifelong resident who serves on the Bay Point Municipal Advisory Council and local park board. He tries to advocate for the community, such as for educational resources. Bay Point’s only high school closed in 1976, with students now attending classes in Concord.

“I see the potential here,” Torres said. “It’s just sad that no one else seems to see it.”

Housing insecurity is a major issue for residents, Torres added, almost half of whom are renters. New construction is rare in Bay Point, and without affordable housing or renter protections, Torres worries the community will be gentrified as home values rise.

“What does (people moving here) mean in terms of the long-term effects of this community?” Torres said. “Is that going to push us out? … We’re kind of stuck here waiting to see what happens.”

Rising home values don’t always harm longtime residents, said Daryl Fairweather, senior economist at Redfin, since that could increase the area’s property tax revenue and help fund affordable housing. But there are also some risks. The owner of a rent-controlled apartment might try to convert it to for-sale housing to take advantage of rising home values, Fairweather explained, or pressure tenants to move out so they can raise rents.

With so few new homes being built in the Bay Area, home buyers have few options but to look further and further out, according to Fairweather.

That’s what Florence Arkin did, and she doesn’t regret it. She’s been meeting her neighbors and found them all very kind, she said, and she’s enjoyed having more quiet and space. She’s also started to find her favorite views — chief among them the top of Evora Road, which gives her a sweeping view over her new home each time she comes back from work.

“Since I moved here, I have no desire to live in the Peninsula,” she said.

Reach Christian Leonard: [email protected]